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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to DEN 8, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. PENALTY on GB-28-T.Brown, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model