4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 1-T.Long 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-5-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model