4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 1-T.Long punts 45 yards to HOU 6, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.45 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model