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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 72

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to LAC 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 20-D.King to LAC 26 for no gain (37-J.Addae).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model