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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 1-T.Long punts 60 yards to HOU 22, Center-45-C.Mazza. 14-D.Carter to HOU 45 for 23 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.05 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model