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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 1-T.Long punts 32 yards to HOU 18, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model