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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 72

Houston Texans 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 20-D.King to LAC 16 for -1 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model