Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Houston Texans 27

(2:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to HOU 42 for 15 yards (32-L.Johnson) [99-J.Watt].

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.36 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model