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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to HOU 30 for 4 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-20-J.Reid was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.74 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model