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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 46

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 9-B.Anger punts 33 yards to LAC 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.90 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model