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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 5

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 4-A.Seibert 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 5, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP