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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 88

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to LA 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-J.Natson to CLE 48 for 4 yards (25-D.Hilliard). PENALTY on LA-31-D.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 48.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.25 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP