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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 29 yards to LA 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model