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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-A.Seibert 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.32 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 17, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model