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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 13 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to LA 38 for 2 yards (32-E.Weddle).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.84 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.64 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model