4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.50 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 19, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP