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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 7-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to LA 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP