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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP