Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:21) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to SF 23, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 38 for 15 yards (25-A.Burns).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.26 EP
52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model