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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.33 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model