Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(8:22) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to SF 14, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 25 for 11 yards (92-O.Adeniyi).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.31 EP
52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model