4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to PIT 18, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model