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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to SF 20, Center-57-K.Canaday. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 25 for 5 yards (51-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP