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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model