Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

(2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to JAX 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.65 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model