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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 89

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to JAX 44, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.45 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 89, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model