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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Tennessee Titans
4th & 6 at the 11
Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14
What Actually Happened
(11:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at JAX 20 for -9 yards (93-C.Campbell).
The Three Options
GO
+1.89 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.68 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
KICK
+1.68 EP
- 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
