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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model