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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Tennessee Titans
4th & 17 at the 47
Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17
What Actually Happened
(1:12) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.04 EP
-
25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
- 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
KICK
-1.33 EP
- 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
