Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Tennessee Titans 0

(14:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model