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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 4-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.42 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model