Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(10:19) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to JAX 29, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 38 for 9 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.97 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model