Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

(1:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to TEN 44, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.32 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model