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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 19

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model