Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 10 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(:16) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-D.Carter to HOU 35 for 18 yards (44-J.Jansen; 15-C.Hogan). PENALTY on CAR-98-M.Haynes, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 35.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP

71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.39 EP
29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -2.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model