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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to HOU 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-A.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.52 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model