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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 8

Carolina Panthers 13 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:31) 4-J.Slye 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +4.45 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model