4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 34

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.37 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model