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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to HOU 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.66 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP