Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-M.Orzech. 19-F.Brown MUFFS catch, recovered by DEN-36-T.Marshall at DEN 7. 36-T.Marshall to DEN 7 for no gain (58-A.Calitro).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.42 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model