Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Denver Broncos 14

(8:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 26 yards to DEN 36, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.81 EP
76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model