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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model