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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 39

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 6-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to JAX 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-27-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.71 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP