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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(:11) 4-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.62 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model