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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 58

Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(:23) 6-C.Wadman punts 42 yards to JAX 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.76 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model