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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 96

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to DEN 37, Center-46-M.Orzech. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 47 for 10 yards (22-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -3.77 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.31 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 96, worth -6.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 53, worth -3.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model