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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 4-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP