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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 75

Denver Broncos 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to JAX 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 31 for 5 yards (27-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.21 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model