Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Denver Broncos 7

(1:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to DEN 31, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model