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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 42

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to NE 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model